Written submission from Serena Giusti, Assistant Professor and researcher working at Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna (University) in Pisa

The EU-Russia Relations: better to reengage

In considering relations between the Euro-Atlantic community and the Russia Federation, we should not commit the grave mistake of identifying an entire country with its leadership. Russia is not a monolithic nation and people have different perceptions, views and positions regarding both domestic and global politics. The Russians’ vision of the world and of the place their country should deserve in the international system might diverge from that elaborated by the Kremlin. It is therefore important to keep in mind that condemning the leadership of that country might be perceive as the blaming of or an entire nation. This is particularly true in Russia where foreign policy is one of the less controversial and divisive policies. Those who are unsympathetic toward Putin’s regime hardly assume a critical stance on the management of external relations. Patriotism, enthused by foreign ‘denigration’, helps overcoming political divisions and inhibits opposition.

In addition, on the basis of recent induced regime changes, the question of stability is not be underestimated in particular as far as a big size country as Russia is concerned. Nationality conflicts may still easily erupt there and overspill outside the national borders. Furthermore, Islamist proselytism of Russian Muslims has increased since the fighting against Assad began in Syria. These Muslim groups could be tempted to exploit any breach in the Russian system of power. After Putin’s invasion of Crimea, Islamist leaders called all Muslims to jihad against Russia. So, any move from the West should be assessed, among others, in terms of its effect on Russia’s stability.

The economic sanctions applied by the US and the EU in response to the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea and to the acts of aggression by the Russian armed forces in the Ukrainian Eastern Southern regions are not ‘smart sanctions’. They will impact on the economy of the country and affect all Russians who are already suffering from the neat contraction of GDP. The weakening global price of oil and the US shale gas developments have additional negative implications. It is too risky hoping that a change in the political system of Russia can be set in motion from below as result of an increasing number of discontented citizens. Furthermore, transformations do not automatically result in democratic regimes especially in context where political culture is distant from the one developed in the West. On the contrary, economic backwards can rather cause a mounting nationalism and a ‘rally around the flag’ behaviour.

The sanctions have so far proved very costly also for the EU members (European companies have been comprehensively hostile, this might downgrade their attitude towards the EU) due to the deep economic interdependency (Russia has become the third trading partner of the EU and the EU is the first trading partner of Russia). Russia has already strengthened economic relations with China and a reversion of trade towards Beijing could be irreversible. But above all, sanctions will make it very difficult for the EU and the US to reengage Russia.