The Pros and Cons of 'de facto' Polish Opting-Out of the EMU

The World Bank economist Marcin Piatkowski concluded in a recent report that Poland ‘has just had probably the best 20 years in more than one thousand years of its history’. Within the EU, the country has been the most resilient to the 2008 global financial crisis. While the limited connections to the international and European financial markets is part of the explanation, one cannot overlook the role of sound macroeconomic policies set up through years in reducing the likelihood of transmission effects based on free trade, fiscal discipline and more integration at the European level. Despite its extraordinary economic performance, Poland has not yet entered the EMU. Polish leadership has mostly calibrated its economic policies following this aim but it is still very controversial in the country, both from a political (public opinion and the opposition are contrary) and a legal point of view (Euro accession would require constitutional changes). This chapter seeks to understand the motivations behind the Polish postponement of the accession to the EMU and the pros and cons (economic, political, social) of this delay. Is this limbo situation going to be a permanent one establishing a ‘de-facto’ opting-out from the EMU?