An analysis pathway for the quantitative evaluation of public transport systems

We consider the problem of evaluating quantitative service-level agreements in public services such as transportation systems. We describe the integration of quantitative analysis tools for data fitting, model generation, simulation, and statistical model-checking, creating an analysis pathway leading from system measurement data to verification results. We apply our pathway to the problem of determining whether public bus systems are delivering an appropriate quality of service as required by regulators. We exercise the pathway on service data obtained from Lothian Buses about the arrival and departure times of their buses on key bus routes through the city of Edinburgh. Although we include only that example in the present paper, our methods are sufficiently general to apply to other transport systems and other cities.